Despite all the gloom and doom overall the state is not in bad shape financially. We cite figures from the June 20 Standard & Poor’s report, which were supplied by the state administration and are current, but the best estimate for the Constitutional Budget Reserve fund balance as of July 1 is $4.3 million; as of May 31, the Permanent Fund’s Earnings Reserve was $12.5 billion.

In terms of the projected FY 2018 deficit, the current estimate for the draw from the Constitutional Budget Reserve is $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, according to information from House Finance co-chair Rep. Paul Seaton’s office. The Permanent Fund Dividend appropriation of approximately $700 million is being made from the Fund’s Earnings Reserve (this is actually standard practice). Looked at this way, the deficit for government operations is $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion. If we add the PFD appropriation, which is not a government operation, the total FY 2018 deficit appears to be $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion.

The combined reserves of $12.5 billion in the ER and $4.3 billion in the CBR totals $16.8 billion. If we subtract the estimated FY 2018 deficit, we’ll have combined reserves of $13.7 billion to $14 billion at the end of FY 2018, or on June 30, 2018. Also of interest is that the Permanent Fund’s ER balance grew from $8.6 billion as of June 30, 2016 to $12.5 billion as of May 31, according to Standard and Poor’s figures. That’s a $3.9 billion gain over 11 months for the ER, which reflects cash earnings of the Permanent Fund, not including gains in invested asset values.