A deeper dig into the consumer index, however, shows there is still caution, with a 52.3 percent score for confidence in the present Anchorage economy and 54.2 per-cent in expectations that things will improve. The trend in expectation for the future is important, Popp said. “Last year at this time it was at 38,” he said. What drives up the overall score, which is a composite, is that consumers’ sense of their own finances was at 68.1, “the best it has been since 2015,” Popp told us. “This means people feel secure, that their own finances are on solid ground.”  

What may be driving the renewal of confidence is the state Legislature’s action to address and partly solve the state’s financial problems, rising oil prices and new oil discoveries on the North Slope. However, consumers will have also have more disposable income to spend in 2018 because of the higher Permanent Fund dividend, set at $1,600 for this year, and federal tax reform. The higher PFD translates to $375 million paid into the local economy this year, a 45 percent increase over 2017, AEDC said.  Also, federal tax reform will reduce Anchorage residents’ tax bills by $90 million in 2018 and by roughly $200 million per year from 2019 through 2022, AEDC said in its forecast.

Despite the upbeat notes the basic economic trends for Anchorage are still showing a gradual decline in terms of jobs, population and other indicators, although residential home values and bankruptcies, which are key indicators, are stable.