Scott Hawkins withdraws in governor’s race, leaving volatile mix

The 2018 governor’s race is getting more complicated. Republican Scott Hawkins withdrew his bid in the race, citing complications caused by the entry of former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell into the Republican primary. Treadwell is now the only opponent to Mike Dunleavy, a former state senator who is considered the Republican frontrunner. Meanwhile, Mark Begich’s entry as a Democrat leaves him as the major contender for the democratic nomination, since incumbent Gov. Bill Walker will run as an independent. Begich is a former U.S. Senator and Anchorage mayor. The outcome of this mix is highly unpredictable both in the August primary between Dunleavy and Treadwell and in the general election in November that will match up Begich, Walker and whoever wins in the Republican primary. Street talk is that both Treadwell and Begich are handicapped by their late entries. Begich has no serious opponent in the Democratic primary but many in organized labor, traditional Begich supporters, had committed early to Walker.

Treadwell’s late entry has created problems for him because many mainstrean Republican donors are already committed to Dunleavy, having seen his early strength. Dunleavy’s strong views on the state budget, for more cuts and a large Permanent Fund dividend, cause concern among business leaders because they know taking a meat axe to the budget will injure the economy in ways not offset by a larger dividend. Also, there’s an awareness that sharp budget cuts to programs like education will add fuel to demands for tax increases.  Dunleavy is leading Treadwell in polls but Treadwell hopes voters will become wary of the axe-the-budget and pump-up-the-PFD pitch, which moderate Republicans view as unrealistic

Walker has meanwhile picked up negatives among some voters for his past veto of funds for the PFD and support for a cap on dividends through a state fiscal plan. Many community leaders give Walker credit for political courage, but he now contends with the public backlash, which is hurting his ratings.