Campaign to recall governor hits a milestone, but lawsuits loom
The campaign to recall Gov. Mike Dunleavy reached a milestone, with organizers turning an application with 49,006 signatures in to the Division of Elections Sept. 5, well over the 28,502 signers needed. Under state law this triggers a formal review of the legality of petition, the claim that Dunleavy has acted unlawfully, and of the signatures themselves to ensure they are valid and from those registered to vote. The extra cushion of signatures was planned because some may be disqualified in the review. Procedurally, if Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer approves the application the organizers will proceed to gather about 72,000 signatures needed to actually trigger a recall election, if those signatures are approved as valid. The 49,006 signatures gathered so far do not count in the second round, so the organizers will be working to get those people to re-sign the formal petitions if those are approved.

There will surely be litigation. Lt. Gov. Meyer’s role is ministerial, meaning that if the recall organizers follow proper procedures and the grounds for the recall are upheld (a court will decide that) Meyer must approve the petitions and allow the process to go forward. Also, Meyer is elected independently – he doesn’t work for the governor. What is likely to happen is that state Attorney General Kevin Clarkson will challenge the validity of the grounds of the recall, which will trigger the lawsuit from proponents. Legal experts say this is a tricky area – a violation of law must be shown – but if there is a gray area the courts, by precedent, have allowed voters to decide questions like this. This means that the gathering of signatures for the actual recall election may be ultimately approved.

What’s important now: How will this affect the governor’s actions?
Whatever happens, the interesting part of this is how it will affect the governor’s actions late this winter and next spring, when the first cycle of litigation and possibly the second round of signature gathering will be underway. If Dunleavy pursues additional draconian cuts to state programs (there are signals he will go after K-12 school funding next spring) it will fuel to the recall effort. If the governor adopts a moderate approach, it could dampen the effort. There is some thinking that Dunleavy may moderate. His easing up on big cuts through budget vetoes and his replacement of his combative chief of staff, Tuckerman Babcock, may signal this. On the other hand the governor shows signs that, like President Trump, he will stick with key things he campaigned on. For Dunleavy this is the $3,000 Permanent Fund Dividend and a smaller budget. So far the governor has not achieved the $3,000 PFD (the Legislature approved a smaller amount of $1,600) but Dunleavy could have another crack at this later this fall in another special legislative session. If Dunleavy wants to push again for sharp cuts in spending it will trigger another fight in the Legislature.

Economic trends: Jobs hold steady; oil, construction are up
The latest Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development employment data, for July, shows a 0.5 gain in Alaska wage and salary jobs, or 1,800 workers, over July 2018. The gain in June was similar. Increases in oil and construction continued, with petroleum jobs up 5.4 percent, or 500 jobs, and construction up 3.3 percent, or 600 jobs. Retail, transportation and health care showed modest gains.